The global maritime surveillance market is projected to grow from $21.9 billion in 2023 to $ 42.7 billion by 2033. This growth is being driven by increasing global trade, maritime security concerns, and the adoption of advanced surveillance technologies such as radars, drones, and satellite monitoring systems.
Moreover, the global shipping industry is now on the frontlines of a new kind of conflict — one defined by economic coercion, shadow fleets, and contested logistics – a durable competition where adversaries seek control and influence over global supply chains. As tariff regimes expand and national security policies increasingly target commercial vessels, maritime operators are being forced to navigate a risk environment shaped more by geopolitics than wind and weather.
Infrastructure of global trade
Trade disruptions are no longer accidental by products of diplomacy — they are deliberate policy levers. Tariff escalation between the U.S. and China, sanctions on Russian oil, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are not isolated threats; they signal a new normal in which governments treat the shipping industry as a tactical asset.
From China's military-civil fusion shipbuilding policies to LOGINK, its state-run maritime surveillance network, the very infrastructure of global trade is becoming entangled in nation-state agendas.
Contested logistics: Struggle for global economic stability
The current maritime threat landscape involving contested logistics contains strategic positioning
The current maritime threat landscape involving contested logistics encompasses strategic positioning across critical chokepoints and infrastructure.
The statistics are sobering: major shipping companies reported traffic through the Suez Canal dropped by 66% as of September 2024 due to Houthi attacks, with J.P. Morgan estimating shipping costs have surged significantly, particularly from Asia to Europe, nearly five-fold.
Regional maritime security issues
These developments illustrate how foundational industries, such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, and rare earth minerals, have become battlegrounds in a broader geopolitical struggle where a cascade of effects have the potential to destroy economies. For example, a military blockade of Taiwan — where Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation operates — would impact every company dependent on advanced semiconductors.
This interconnectedness means that what may, on the surface, appear to be regional maritime security issues, can be much more — the potential for global economic disruption across multiple industries.
Monitoring of Arctic fleet movements
Shadow fleets operated by sanctioned states rely on tactics such as false flagging, frequent ownership changes
New threat vectors are coming into focus as the seas expand. As the polar ice caps melt, new Arctic shipping lanes are opening, with a large portion of traffic driven by Russian vessels.
These routes present unique surveillance challenges due to their remote nature and the limited presence of traditional maritime enforcement bodies. Monitoring of Arctic fleet movements and infrastructure developments is essential for maintaining security in this emerging corridor.
Concerns about dual-use capabilities and strategic readiness
Shadow fleets, illicit networks, and military-grade commercial vessels represent real risks, posing challenges in the areas of regulatory compliance, insurance viability, and operational safety. Shadow fleets operated by sanctioned states rely on tactics such as false flagging, frequent ownership changes, and manipulations of the Automatic Identification System (AIS).
By turning off transponders, spoofing locations, or falsifying data, these vessels can effectively vanish from traditional tracking systems. This disappearance makes ships harder for authorities to trace and easier for adversaries to exploit for sanctions evasions and/or covert logistics. China's commercial fleets increasingly mirror military standards, raising concerns about dual-use capabilities and strategic readiness under the guise of trade.
The need for a new risk framework
To navigate this new threat landscape on the high seas, organisations must adopt a new kind of visibility
For logistics and shipping pioneers, these implications are profound. This is no longer about simply avoiding sanctioned cargo — it's about forecasting how governments will act and how quickly those actions can alter operations. Vessels may be commandeered, sanctioned, or rerouted without warning. Insurance may evaporate. Contracts may become liabilities.
To navigate this new threat landscape on the high seas, organisations must adopt a new kind of visibility — one that models the cascading effects of tariffs, military requisition policies, and enforcement shifts. This is where Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) becomes indispensable.
Real-time context on geopolitical risks
OSINT draws from publicly available data -- including satellite imagery, port registries, and social media — to provide real-time context on geopolitical risks. It can be used to track vessel flagging and ownership changes, monitor transshipment hubs, and surface anomalies in crew rosters and employment histories — indicators often tied to sanctions evasion or illicit activity.
AIS anomaly detection reveals when ships "go dark." Satellite imagery exposes vessels operating without transponders. Tracking shifts in vessels' flagging or changes in crew manifests can signal risk before it hits operations.
Early indicators of disruption
OSINT supports risk modelling by revealing trends like flag-of-convenience usage, secondary insurance
For insurers and regulators, OSINT supports risk modelling by revealing trends such as flag-of-convenience usage, secondary insurance underwriting in high-risk zones, and affiliations with known bad actors.
OSINT doesn't just enhance compliance — it enables foresight, empowering industry players to anticipate when and where governments will act. Now, tariff announcements, sanction designations, and strategic military exercises are not isolated datapoints — they're potentially early indicators of disruption.
Maritime situational awareness is a business imperative
The age of separating business risk from political risk is over. Global shipping is now a domain of contested logistics where the rules can change as fast as a sanctions update or new enforcement directive. Companies that integrate OSINT into their operational planning gain the ability to model and mitigate threats proactively. Those that don't may find themselves caught in the wake of potential financial, operational, and reputational harm.
The shipping industry needs access to the same kind of threat modelling governments use to act. In an era of growing complexity, the role of OSINT in securing global shipping networks cannot be overstated.
