The shipping industry is currently navigating a profound transformation driven by environmental concerns, new emissions targets, and evolving regulations. As vessel owners and operators seek to reduce emissions while remaining competitive, determining the right strategy has become increasingly complex.
Factors such as alternative fuel availability, fluctuating prices, and an ever-expanding range of technological solutions have made decision-making anything but straightforward.
Lack of motivation
Regulations evolve, technologies persist to advance, and can differ greatly from port to port
The complexity arises from the many moving parts of the industry. Regulations evolve, technologies continue to advance, and infrastructure can differ greatly from port to port.
For vessel owners committed to reducing their environmental impact, the challenge isn’t a lack of motivation, it’s finding the most effective way to navigate the myriad of options available.
Hybrid propulsion systems
One method gaining traction is data-driven decision-making through digital modelling. Rather than making decisions based on guesswork, digital modelling allows owners and operators to create a detailed representation of a vessel and simulate the performance of different strategies or technologies over its lifetime.
That way, they can ‘test’ these approaches before committing large investments—particularly useful when considering new fuels or hybrid propulsion systems that are still maturing.
Decarbonisation Modelling Service
Digital modelling accounts for variables such as vessel speed, power needs, and route patterns
Digital modelling accounts for variables such as vessel speed, power needs, and route patterns, applying machine-learning algorithms to find the most promising design or retrofit. It can also show how ideas might evolve if regulations tighten, or new fuels become more practical.
At Wärtsilä, our Decarbonisation Modelling Service is designed to guide shipowners and operators through this maze of choices. In developing this tool, we have observed that shipowners required more than an “off-the-shelf” solution. They needed insights based on their own operational data, combined with practical knowledge of costs and likely regulatory trends.
Benefits of digital modelling
One of the main benefits of digital modelling is its flexibility. Depending on an owner’s goals, whether that’s meeting today’s regulations or planning for future mandates, they can explore multiple options.
A fleet operator might compare installing hybrid batteries versus retrofitting for LNG or consider alternative fuels such as ammonia and methanol, or carbon capture. These simulations can factor in fuel prices, available bunkering infrastructure, and even unexpected events like global supply chain disruptions or future carbon taxes.
Ship’s actual operational profile
At Wärtsilä we often liken digital modelling as the closest thing to a crystal ball
At Wärtsilä we often liken digital modelling as the closest thing to a crystal ball. While it isn’t perfect, it significantly improves our ability to make informed decisions and maintain flexibility as market conditions or regulatory landscapes shift.
Consider, for instance, a mid-sized container ship operating in Asia. The owner, eager to lower CO2 emissions, might be unsure whether to retrofit for LNG immediately or wait for ammonia infrastructure to mature. Using a digital model based on the ship’s actual operational profile, we can test both scenarios—evaluating fuel price trends, port facilities, and the vessel’s remaining service life.
Adopt an interim strategy
If the model indicates that an LNG retrofit offers a promising return on investment along with moderate emissions cuts, the decision becomes clearer. Alternatively, if the potential for ammonia becomes evident sooner, it might be wiser to adopt an interim strategy or consider dual-fuel engines.
It’s important to recognise that decarbonisation is not merely a box-ticking exercise to meet current regulations; it is a dynamic, ongoing process. With tightening rules from bodies like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the EU on carbon intensity, and with cargo owners increasingly demanding transparency, the need for adaptive, data-driven solutions is more critical than ever.
LNG with battery storage
Others might make quick retrofits to comply with rules and plan for bigger upgrades later
Another strength of data-driven decarbonisation is that it is not a one-off activity. As a vessel operates, new information becomes available. Owners can update their models to reflect these shifts, allowing for continuous refinement. This matters because what is optimal now may only be a temporary measure.
Some operators use LNG with battery storage for a few years, then switch to next-generation fuels as they become viable. Others might make quick retrofits to comply with regulations and plan for bigger upgrades later.
Raw data into actionable insights
There is also a perception that gathering and interpreting data is too complex or costly. However, many modern vessels are already equipped with the necessary sensors and tracking systems, and analytics software has become more accessible.
The real value lies in transforming raw data into actionable insights. Digital models not only help in planning for evolving market conditions but also enable us to visualise and execute long-term strategies.
Portion of global CO2 emissions
The real test is balancing environmental aims with retail realities and regulatory forces
Shipping contributes a notable portion of global CO2 emissions, giving the industry strong financial and ethical reasons to embrace cleaner operations. The real test is balancing environmental aims with commercial realities and regulatory pressures.
With mounting pressure from regulators, customers, and investors, now is an opportune time to adopt data-driven approaches. A continuously updated model provides a practical way to keep up with changes in the market and policy landscape. By integrating operational data, anticipating possible scenarios, and remaining open to new solutions, the maritime industry can cut emissions without sacrificing competitiveness.
Shipowners and operators
Shipping is an industry that operates on tight margins and these tools must deliver financial stability as well as ongoing compliance.
Digital modelling is not just another technical tool; it’s a forward-looking process that helps shipowners and operators steer a confident course in uncertain waters. As more companies experiment with alternative fuels, hybrid propulsion, and emerging technologies, having a robust method for evaluating these options is absolutely essential.
